My Watch Market Predictions: Who will do good in 2025?

2024 was a challenging year for most watch brands. To look on the bright side: For 2025, this means that things can only get better, right? A quick look at the current offers on Chrono24 shows that the prices of some models from brands such as Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet are moving back towards a more realistic level on the secondary market after shooting through the roof just a few years ago.

That being said, a buyer’s market is music to my ears. It gives me the opportunity to expand my collection at prices significantly lower than just two years ago, when selling a Nautilus could buy you not only a house in the countryside but also a car for the garage. These days, selling a Nautilus might cover a camper—but not the car to tow it.

As for predicting which brands will thrive in 2025, I’m merely speculating (as always). But let’s start at the top:

1. Vacheron Constantin

The Vacheron Constantin Historiques 222 in stainless steel

Vacheron Constantin had another great year in 2024, driven not only by the success of the Overseas collection but also by the high-complication models that watch enthusiasts have thankfully started to explore following the cooling of the Patek Philippe fever.

The launch of the steel 222 earlier this year has solidified Vacheron Constantin’s position as a highly coveted brand, further reinforcing its status as one of the “Big Three.” The question now is whether Patek Philippe can maintain its reign, especially in light of the controversial launch of the Cubitus line in 2024.

That being said, I’m very curious to follow the development of the Cubitus collection—particularly since Thierry Stern mentioned that the line has been planned through 2039.

A Cubitus with a minute repeater and tourbillon? Absolutely. Add an enamel dial, and I have no doubt collectors will be intrigued while critics will be silenced.

2. Cartier

Cartier has positioned itself as a strong contender for wrist dominance again in 2025, continuing its legacy as a leader in elegant and iconic timepieces. The Maison’s ability to balance timeless elegance with modern trends—such as revamping classics like the Tank and Santos Dumont (especially) —has solidified its relevance in the luxury watch industry and is one of the very few brands that do well on today’s very troubled market.

Cartier’s focus on accessibility through diverse price points – a new quartz Tank Must can be yours for USD 3,450 – coupled with its appeal to both men and women, ensures a broad fan base. The question of whether Cartier can “reign the wrists” in 2025 depends on its ability to maintain this momentum and adapt to shifting consumer preferences, especially as the pre-owned market grows and competition from brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet remains fierce.

Talking the pre-owned market, the global market has experienced significant growth in recent years. In 2023, the market was valued at approximately USD 24.6 billion according to a report by market.us. Projections indicate that this market will continue to expand, reaching an estimated USD 32.05 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% during the forecast period.

3. Smaller watches and stone dials

Dennison Natural Stone Tiger Eye in Gold

Don’t frown if you’re offered a 32 mm Neo-vintage watch. Especially if said watch is set with a stone dial. Think aventurine, Tiger’s Eye or Lapis Lazuli. The trend of the smaller watches is something we’ll enjoy well into 2025. There’s something extremely charming about these “smaller” watches as we’ve learned from the likes of influencers like Brynn Wallner (@Dimepiece), Mike Nouveau (@MikeNouveau), Auro Montanari (@goldberger) and Tyler, the Creator – especially. It’s not the size. It is how you wear it.

A great example that celebrates this trend is newcomer Dennison. Their first collection of watches was introduced in 2024, all designed by industry legend, Emmanuel “Manu” Gueit. The gentleman who also designed the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore in 1989 and the new generation Rolex Cellini line in 2014, to name a few.

Looking at the Dennison collection, one might easily mistake these watches for vintage Piaget models, thanks to their elegant shapes and stone dials made from malachite, aventurine, lapis lazuli, and tiger’s eye. Interestingly, many of these design elements trace back to the 1960s and ’70s and were originally created by Manu’s father, Jean-Claude Gueit.

Currently, Dennison watches are fitted with Swiss quartz movements, keeping their prices accessible. This makes it easier for enthusiasts to adorn their wrists with these stunning stone dials and feel as if they’re dancing the night away with Yves Piaget at the legendary Studio 54 during the 1970s. I believe the Dennison brand will do well in 2025, as they have certainly struck a chord with today’s watch lovers.

That said, 2025 is still young, and Watches and Wonders is just around the corner. Of course, I could be entirely wrong in my predictions. Who knows? Panerai might make a big comeback (pun intended), and a 45 mm Patek Philippe could even become the standard size for men’s wrists. Let’s wait and see!